I am dusting off a classic test for risk intuition. If you remember the test from years past, it will be nice to reminisce. If not, take the test now to assess your intuition and look at risk in a new way.
Tag Archives | modeling
Stress Testing: A Reminder from Fukushima
The eyes of the world are on Fukushima, Japan, where heroic technicians and military personnel struggle to prevent a nuclear armageddon. A massive earthquake spawned a devastating tsunami that knocked out a nuclear power plant’s cooling system. And here we are. This reminds us how low-probability high-impact events tend to be correlated. If a country experiences prolonged draught, [...]
Don’t Blame the Modelers
With the markets in turmoil, I have little time to comment publicly, and breaking through to be heard above the clatter is all but impossible. Reporters seeking sound bites don’t help. From: Tansy Harcourt To: Glyn Holton Sent: October 1, 2008 Subject: Consulting Hi Glyn, I’m a journalist in Australia for the Australian Financial Review. [...]
Peter Bernstein’s Evolving Thinking On Risk
Peter Bernstein is an elder statesman of finance. He served time in the rough-and-tumble world of portfolio management. He was the first editor of the Journal of Portfolio Management, and his diverse writings have made him somewhat the chronicler of twentieth century finance. He is best known for his book Capital Ideas: The Improbable Origins [...]
Milton Friedman: A Lesson in Positive Risk Measurement
I woke up in a London hotel last Friday, sleep deprived and just aching for some real American coffee. I nibbled my black pudding with fried tomatoes and glanced at the Financial Times. Milton Friedman had died. Friedman is best known for his advocacy of monetarism, a mistake that irrevocably associated him with the gyrating [...]